Long-form essay series
01 — 03 essays
The Long View on AI
A long-range inquiry into how industry evolution, technology history, capital, business models and institutions may shape the next five to ten years of AI.
Series manifesto
This is neither a news digest nor a tool guide. Each essay begins with a durable question, examines more than one plausible future, identifies the forces that could change direction, and leaves room to revise the argument as new evidence emerges.
Reading path
Infrastructure
How compute, energy, cost and public access determine whose capability AI becomes.
01
Will AI Become Public Infrastructure Like Electricity and the Internet?As AI becomes a capability every sector depends on, the important questions shift from model performance to access, rules, cost and responsibility. Electricity, the internet and public compute point to three plausible futures.
↗02When Token Costs Approach Zero, What Remains Expensive?Falling model prices do not make the full cost of AI disappear. The scarce and expensive parts are moving into energy, usable data, integration, verification, trust and organizational change.
↗03Who Will Pay for the Global GPU and Data-Centre Buildout?A platform may finance an AI data centre without bearing its entire eventual cost. Follow cash spending, leases, depreciation, cloud contracts and electricity tariffs to see where the risk lands.
↗Model Order
How open and closed models, commoditization and sovereignty may redistribute control.
Business Models
Who creates value, who pays for it, and which layer ultimately captures it.
Physical Systems & Society
How firms, industries and shared life may reorganize as AI moves beyond the screen.